A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the nation and caused chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Each writes two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
